Showing posts with label Behaviour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Behaviour. Show all posts

Sunday, August 20, 2017

The Ostrich Paradox by Meyer & Kunreuther

THE OSTRICH PARADOX: Why We Underprepare for Disasters by Robert Meyer & Howard Kunreuther (2017) Wharton Digital Press, p 132

The motivation for choosing is title was the force of recommendation of Adam Grant and kind words of appreciation for this title by Daniel Kahneman. Decision making is one of the very important functions of any organization or of any government. When the issue of public policy is discussed, it is the decision making which makes all the difference, just as in a business organisation it happens while devising successful strategies to compete. Decision making is really a very complex process as well as a risky proposition for state and organisations alike.

This book holding its premise in the nature of bird Ostrich makes a good sense driven by the force of nature.  System 1 and System 2 (thinking systems which drive us to use our brain cells) as narrated and defended in Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman gets blended with the perception policy makers have while deciding on their future course of action. Primarily the book is all about Six Biases that get to play while preparing for disasters or risks. It is defended that the reason why we underprepare for disasters lies in these six biases, viz., Myopia, Amnesia, Optimism, Inertia, Simplification and Herding. The authors believe that the researches on most of the disasters of past years are the result of harmful effects of these six systematic biases. These biases show the weakness while we commit System 1 error to perceive risk in haste and commit System 2 error while making decision. The first part of the book narrates these biases with the examples of disasters occurred in different geographies of the world. These examples make the arguments convincing and the biases strong.

Part 2 of the book is prescriptive and the authors provide some kind of remedial measures so that such disasters could be avoided.  Behavioural risk audit of each bias and its elaborate analysis makes the book worth contributing towards providing some practical solutions to deal with disasters. The authors propose four guiding principles to manage long term risk:
  1. Commit to long-term protective planning as a major priority.
  2. Commit to policies that discourage individual and community actions that increase their explore to long-term risks.
  3. Create policies that consider the cognitive biases that inhibit adoption of protective measures.
  4. Commit to addressing problems equitably.
These suggestions are well defended with preemptive figures. As a student of business and strategy I feel the book makes a very good case for making successful strategies while organizations handle competition. Lot of times organizations have suffered and faced these biases which gets into while dealing with sustainability issues within and beyond organization. Risk management is an important field of study where this title helps to provide some guidelines. Actuarial scientists have a lot to learn from this volume.  Some of the interesting bytes that I got from the book are:  
'while economics and statistics teach us how we should think about probability and outcomes when choosing between alternatives, we rarely follow these principles when actually making decisions. More often than not, we make choices under risk intuitively rather than deliberately.'
'The perceptions we form about risk are thus more cognitive cocktail of objective facts, subjective feelings, and emotional blend that often causes beliefs about risk to stray widely from those a statistician might prescribe.'
'It is hard to convince people that - the best return on an insurance policy is no return at all.'
Though the book is concise and written from the perspective of disaster management, it travels beyond that boundary and helps its reader to deal with problems through having a perspective.  The authors deserve credit for compiling series of disasters and developing a practical argument to look beyond and prescribe measures for preparations.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Outliers - the story of success by Malcolm Gladwell


OUTLIERS - the story of success by Malcolm Gladwell (2008), Penguin Books, p 309.

The question as to what is that which makes people successful keeps coming to our mind as we keep reading about great people and come across their journey. I have been trying to find out that formula which can help me understand the basics for becoming a successful person. Shakespearean belief that Some are born Great, Some achieve Greatness and on some Greatness is thrust upon caught my attention while I started relating Greatness with Success and later realized that there is a difference in being Successful and in being Great. While reading about different research works and books I came across this book titled OUTLIERS by one of my favorite authors Malcolm Gladwell (MG) and having gone through 'Blink' and 'The Tipping Point', I thought that my familiarity with the writing style of MG might solve the puzzle that I have been facing all this while.

MG successfully traces the background of successful individuals and develops a story around it focusing on finding out the antecedents. Biological and biographical characteristics of individuals determine a kind of behavior individuals follow. Key success factors of individuals are determined by the culture, background, growing up, geography (location), prevailing political-social-economical-technological conditions, etc. This book starts a story interwoven with various researches by educationists, psychologists and sociologists to defend so succinctly the argument and convinces the reader chapter after chapter what the author wants to convey, the constituents of being successful. The reasoning given in the book is at times never ever thought of but he is able to win through his in depth study and linking the condition with the outcome.

The cause of maintaining better cardiological standards is explained through the research done by Bruhn and Wolf which is able to keep the reader engrossed and curious to further learn about other stories. Community living through providing a strong support system with ‘a thinking beyond the individual’ was found to be the main reason unlike their biological and geographical background. MG writes - I want to do for our understanding of success what Stewart Wolf did for our understanding of health.

The book is divided in two parts - Opportunity and Legacy. The author seems to be convinced that there are these two great differentiators which make people successful or otherwise. Coincidental yet providing a defense for being successful hockey player as they were born in a given month makes it really interesting and the as the argument seems making sense, one realizes that it is just because in order to have admission into Hockey Academy one has to be of certain age and many a times it is manipulated.  The point is the available opportunity to these players who join the academy and who are not able to join, makes all the difference, though at the end of the day it is genuine performance which matters. The opportunity which was capitalized by Bill Gates or the people of his tribe makes the case of being successful through the presence of opportunity more than the talent. It really does make sense and we have seen it all around us. Many talented individuals could not achieve greater heights in their career just because they did not get the opportunity or they just could not have that talent which could convert the opportunity into targeted performance. In case of technological transformation (especially in connection with computers), people who were born in 50s could avail the opportunity in 70s. It was just in time for them.

Growing up with a statement – practice makes the man perfect, I realize that outliers also possess patience and get an opportunity for seriously practicing for their passion, their focus, their target and resultantly achieve it. As portrayed by MG in this book through the example of The 10,000-Hour Rule, and illustrated through the success of Beatles, Bill Gates, Bill Joy and others in the same club.     

A lot depends on the growing up of individuals and what they learn from their growing up. The prevalent conditions and situation and the art of successfully dealing with it in one’s advantage is what becomes a contributing factor for having an attitude to learn and work hard (or otherwise).  The culture of honor determines one’s cognitive faculties through an attitude, perception, and personality. Depending on whether one has grown as farmer or herdsman, in the bordering town or mainstream city, one carries oneself and forms a certain kind of behaviour. This is Legacy and MG believes that it plays an important role in distinguishing successful individuals from not-so-successful ones. Extrinsic factors apart from biological characteristics of an individual determine the scale of success (or otherwise) for them.

The case of crash of Korean Air plane is explained, reasoned and corroborated in such an excellent way which displays MG’s brilliance in putting the threads together and weaving an excellent story with it, leaving behind so much of bulleted learning. For the students of behaviour and management it makes an important read. The conditions in which one grows up drives him/her to develop a certain kind of behaviour which results in an attitude to perform one’s best and to be assertive about one’s position which is part of a legacy an individual carries forward with. Number of days and hours of effective schooling in a year and day in eastern world as compared to western world is relatively more.  The school year in the US is, on average, 180 days long, in South Korea it is 220 days, and in Japan it is 243 days long. This develops an attitude of hardworking in a child from the very beginning which is driven by the fact that one needs to put more efforts. The example of rising before dawn 360 days a year makes sense for the case of having more effective working time. Knowledge Is Power Program in New York City is the result of this learning in order to get prepared to compete with their eastern counterparts.

The dedication of the book to Daisy, the grandmother of MG is very apt and the reason has been explained by him towards the end of the book. This in fact makes Daisy as well as MG and MG’s mother an Outlier. I strongly recommend this book for anyone who believes in the pursuit towards excellence and in the quest of knowing the rationale.

Friday, August 10, 2012

Russell: Authority and the Individual


Russell: Authority and the Individual, Special Indian Edition (Reprint), published by Routledge 2010, First Published in 1949
(c) 2010, The Bertrand Russell Peace Foundation Ltd.
(c) 1995, Introduction by Kirk Willis

This collection of six lectures are popularly known as Reith Lectures (which were delivered in the autumn and early winter of 1949, to honor John Reith, the founding Director of BBC who was Proud, Imperious, and vindictive autocratic administrator and formidable personality who succeeded brilliantly both in bruising the sensibilities of subordinates and overseers alike and in creating one of Britain's most admired and durable institutions) were delivered by Bertrand Russell. Authority (which is a reflection of state power) and the Individual (which reflects human freedom) as a book includes the lectures on Social Cohesion and Human Nature, Social Cohesion and Government, The Role of Individuality, The Conflict of Technique and Human Nature, Control and Initiative - their Respective Spheres and Individual and Social Ethics.

The first essay (lecture) on social cohesion and human nature deliberates on different aspects of commonalities in the beings (animals and human) as well their distinctions. Russell gives a very good example of Bees and Ants who have cooperation and unity of a group as important instincts though they are 'never tempted to anti-social actions and never deviate from devotion to the nest or the hive'.  However they do not dream like the human beings.  It is the social group called Family which necessitates the division of labor as the men hunted while the women stayed at home.

The transition from the early human beings to the social beings is very nicely elaborated and defended with reasons, conditions and considerations.  Many a times we tend to live in the past with its expressible glory, however each one of us live to earn that glory with which we would associate ourselves later in life.  That keeps driving us to perform our better and to make greater achievements.  Russell warns towards the end of the essay of the destructive philosophies that might prevent us from performing our best - 'If this is to be prevented, the savage in each one of us must find some outlet not incompatible with civilised life and the happiness of this equally savage neighbour.'

Second lecture entitled Social Cohesion and Government discusses the responsibility and role of government in order to build cohesion in societies.  It also establishes the fact that the relationship between societies and the government has to be nurtured for better policy to rule.  Different kinds of governments ruling in different parts of the world from Old Stone Age to the modern ones are exemplified in order to strengthen the argument as to authority, obedience, enforcement, liberty, freedom, religion, etc.  Russell mentions - Governments, from the earliest times at which it existed, has had two functions, one negative and one positive.  Its negative function has been to prevent private violence, to protect life and property, to enact criminal law and secure its enforcements and positive functions of government at most times have been mainly confined to war: if an enemy could be conquered and his territory acquired, everybody in the victorious nation profited in a greater or less degree. He further states that the ambit of positive functions is broadened now as the governments have to provide education (consisting not only of the acquisition of scholastic attainments, but also of the instilling of certain loyalties and certain beliefs), and encouraging industrial enterprises. The examples of the government in USA, Britain, Egypt, Sweden, India, China are sketched very lucidly.
       
Third lecture entitled the role of individuality basically deals with the impluses and desires of individuals for good as well as for evil.  The differences between individual's behaviour as the change happen with their respective roles have been critically discussed.  The role of court poets, artists and their contribution towards the expansion of glory of their patrons is well placed.  We have been witnessing such glorifications all through ages and the present time is no exception.  This is what makes his lecture still very relevant and provides a questioning eye towards such self sponsored praises.   Religion, moral progress (innovation), rise of men of science, community feeling and their role in building the base for individual behaviour is just marvellous.  Russell puts it - The great men who stand out in history have been partly benefactors of mankind and partly quite the reverse.  Some, like the great religious and moral innovators, have done what lay in their power to make men less cruel towards each other, and less limited in their sympathies; some, like the men of science, have given us a knowledge and understanding of natural processes which, however it may be misused, must be regarded as in itself a splendid thing...I cannot think of anything that mankind has gained by the existence of Jenghis Khan.  I do not know what good came of Robespierre...I see no reason to be grateful to Lenin. But all these men, good and bad alike, had a quality which I should not wish to see disappear from the world. The lecture ends with a very hopeful note on the role of modern organizations and institutions in allowing/disallowing the individuals to play their constructive role. 

Then comes the fourth lecture on the conflict of technique and human nature. I like the very first sentence of this lecture...man differs from other animals in many ways.  More for the word ‘others’ as we all consider human being as social animal.  The comparison of men with other animals is just excellent and voices his argument for the differences and conflicts as part of human nature.  The change in the degree of conflict for early man to the modern man is expressed brilliantly.  However one has to remember that as these lectures were given sometime in the early twentieth century, the term modern become very relative.  As a student of organizational behaviour and strategic management, I really liked this lecture the most.  This is why I shall like to elaborate on this lecture more.  Let us first read this stanza and then discuss the issues involved on the basis of the researches done in the last century (approx):
Consider a large factory, say one that makes motor cars.  The purpose of the organization is to make cars, but the purpose of the workers is to earn wages.  Subjectively, there is no common purpose.  The uniting purpose exists only in owners and managers, and may be completely absent in most of those who do the work.  Some may be proud of the excellence of the cars produced, but most, through their unions, are mainly concerned with wages and hours of work. (p 42)
When this lecture was delivered, around same time Ford was leading car company and Fordism was in currency so far as management practices are concerned which was also driven by the view as reflected by Russell (the purpose of the workers is to earn wages).  Primarily for survival it seems correct but beyond that it is not just that.  Elton Mayo's work (Howthorne Experiment) defends an argument that work is a group activity and workers are driven by many other factors as well.  Herzberg's Hygiene theory concludes on satisfiers and dissatisfiers and apart from Salary there are other factors which play an important role.  Further beyond management, Easterlin Paradox also defends that the role of money ends till the basic needs are fulfilled and beyond that there are other factors which become more important.  So the point is that at present can we continue with a framework of mindset that the workers are working for wages only.  I feel that would certainly be a folly.

This lecture questions the basic premise of all the problems of today's world.  He questions the very concept of money and monetization which has created a great divide.  The conflict between management (capital) and the worker (labor) and the role of the government to resolve such conflict though he warns - it would be unduly optimistic to expect that governments, even if democratic, will always do what is best in public interest.  His another warning - Men can be stimulated by hope or driven by fear, but the hope and the fear must be vivid and immediate if they are to be effective without producing weariness. His views on competition, democracy, role of government, austerity, power, politics, industrial revolution are worth reading and thinking which are highly contextual and lead to a thinking of well-being.  

In continuation, fifth lecture is entitled control and initiative: their respective spheres. The aim of government as he suggests should be security, justice and conservation apart from taking care of institutions which produce scientific research.  The spirit of the whole chapter lies in the fact that there cannot be fruitful initiative without government, but there can be government without initiative.  The role of government is well explained and the problems in the absence of government are illustrated as well.  The scope of initiatives and actions as inspired by the governments are subject to control so that the governance becomes better.  These ideal roles of states are to be subject to public scrutiny through appropriate institutions.  The issues related to the remuneration, industrial democracy and institutional control are well spelt in the lecture keeping in mind the differences between nations as material goods are more a matter of possession than goods that are mental. 

The last lecture in the book entitled individual and social ethics concentrates on two points – first to repeat briefly the conclusions reached in earlier lectures; and second, to relate social and political doctrines to the individual ethics by which a man should guide his personal life. Security and justice as mentioned as the function of the government in the earlier lecture, require centralized governmental control.  He suggests a supra body called world government.  This whole lecture provides guidelines for the functioning of state keeping in mind the individual initiatives and basic human ethics.  His suggestions as to governance of railways and control of scientific research are worth reading.  The religious texts like the Old Testament are quoted for maintaining human/social ethics.  As I said in Lecture III, prophets, mystics, poets, scientific discoverers, are men whose lives are dominated by a vision; they are essentially solitary men.  When their dominant impulse is strong, they feel that they cannot obey authority if it runs counter to what they profoundly believe to be good.  The assertions by such individuals and bodies in order to follow ethics while being loyal to their masters are great examples which as the part of state are still relevant.  Individuals play their roles according to their loyalties.  Men who boast of being what is called ’practical’ are for the most part exclusively preoccupied with means.  But there is only one-half of wisdom. In the present world it might sound very conservative but in the name of practicality and professionalism the spirit gets lost and the drive to create new knowledge, the understanding of love and friendship, the feeling of the smell of blooming flowers, the glory, etc etc, all fall flat.  Love of power still leads to vast tyrannies, or to mere obstruction when its grosser forms are impossible.  And fear – deep, scarcely conscious fear – is still the dominant motive in very many lives.   He guides towards the end of the lecture – self control has always been a watchword of the moralists, but in the past it has been a control without understanding. 

These lectures are still very relevant.  The language is excellent and the approach is very convincing.  The examples are contemporary. At times his personal bias towards individuals, states and institutions is reflected but he accepts that.  Overall reading these lectures has really benefitted me immensely to understand the basics of individual and group behavior in different social settings.  I wish I had personally attended these lectures.

AATMANIRBHAR: by Ashwani Mahajan (editor)

AATMANIRBHAR: a swadeshi paradigm (2023) by ASHWANI MAHAJAN (editor), Rupa Publications, New Delhi, p 226 The prerequisite for visioning Ind...