FACTFULNESS by Hans Rosling

FACTFULNESS: Ten Reasons We're wrong about the world - and why things are better than you think by Hans Rosling (2018) with Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Ronnlund, Hachette - Sceptre, UK, p 342.

Some fifteen years ago a renowned practicing psychologist in Philadelphia was interacting with me and I asked him about his experience of India and to my utter surprise he shared some of the bad memories he had while he visited Bombay (Mumbai).  He told me it is overcrowded, beggars all over the places, corruption, poor law and order etc., etc. I didn't want him to continue further, so I intervened and inquired when was it, I mean the year, he tried to figure out the year but unable to recall he said it was sometime in early 80s.  I just told him, things have changed a lot in India and in Mumbai.  India is not same as before.  As world has changed, India has changed positively too.

But at the back of my head, I got into thinking as to how we tend to form our opinion about places and people and what drives our bias towards what we think. We see things from the experiences we have and get so possessed that we forget transitions overtime and our perspective lands into narrowness.  Most of us commit this error unknowingly and accordingly our perceptions and decisions are affected.  Many a times they are far from reality.

It is in this background when I read a brief about Factfulness and saw TED talk by Hans Rosling, I was driven to go through the book.  Bill Gates has been a great admirer of Hans Rosling and his way of looking at future on the basis of facts.  He states that it is one of the most important books he has ever read and that's why his charity is giving a free eCopy of this volume to all graduating Americans this year.

Factfulness is based on some of the most interesting questions each one of us should have and try to find answers of when we are interacting with the new world. Most of us tend to believe that the world is getting worse year after year.  We have heard lot of stories from our elders that their days were better.  Media keeps writing fascinating stories about the dark days we are living and going to face in the future.  Most politicians capitalize on our ignorance and preposterously play with our emotions. The policy makers get myopic while designing policies. So we form our perception on the basis of what gets written about, what people around us talk about and what was told to us long back or we saw long back.

Interestingly, most of the times we do not dig into data and try to know whether what is being served to us is correct or not, or what is the reality behind.  Hans Rosling along with Ola Rosling (son) and Anna Rosling Ronnlund (daughter-in-law) provide us guided tour through an unusual quiz and provocative puzzles which make one realize number of times that chimpanzees think better than a human being.  His arguments are exemplary and as a physician and expert on global health, his grip on health issues and defense that we are in much better condition as compared to the past, assures that things are not bad but perceptions are.  So better if we try finding facts and data and use some little analysis to form an opinion which can help us think better and make better policies. Though there are only 13 questions as such which are the basis of the whole argument that the world is getting better, there are many other questions which the book answers through the narratives to the social milieu.

Like many of my generation people, I grew up with the binary classification of the world - developed and less developed or poor.  Later the World Bank started classifying the world in four categories, viz., Low income, Lower middle income, Upper middle income, and High income and we began to see the world in different way.  Never knew that it was Hans who was trying hard to break the binary and could successfully convince the World Bank to expand in four categories.  In this book all the questions are answered from the perspective of four categories as Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 and Level 4.  Countries are moving from Level 1 to Level 4 exponentially (Soon, most people on Level 4 will be non-westerners) and this volume is an exceptional tribute to the changing world where we see lot of improvement in health indicators (88% immunization, 70 yrs of Life Expectancy) globally. It might sound unbelievable but it is heartening to know that 90% girls go to school globally.

Personal experiences are beautifully corroborated by the author and the way the whole book is written shows the passion of the team towards the cause of providing clarity based on facts which otherwise get maimed. As individuals and institutions we need to draw policies and strategies, design products and services, provide solutions and make systems for the organisations and market of tomorrow and if they are based on the facts which could be extrapolated for the future, we shall be preparing for better future, mind it, Societies and cultures are not like rocks, unchanging and unchangeable.

We can not use old glasses for new challenges and very strongly we need to come out of archaic thinking based on mere observations or hearsay, we need to get to look for reality through data so that we see the future more clearly.  Though Hans Rosling could not see the release of the book as he left us in Feb 2017, the kind of awareness he has created and legacy he has left, I am sure it shall go a long way in helping all of us to understand the world better. It shall be a true tribute to him if we all become possibilists as he used to call himself.  I wish the person I met in Philadelphia shall appreciate the changes that and amend his opinion about India which was nothing but a crude generalization.

The book is written in a very reader friendly manner.  The visuals are unique and never-before type and are simple to understand.  It diagnoses problem, prescribes solutions and cautions the reader to not get carried away with the crowd.  The book is very prescriptive and that is the best part of this book.

Factfulness is an insigthful sojourn into the world of optimism, possibility and positivity. The passion Hans Rosling has reflected in writing this book makes it an interesting read for everyone. For policy makers, students, academics, business community, civil society, challengers, complainers, politicians - for almost everybody, this volume tries to explore and provide an answer to use better informed, fact based yardsticks. All who are interested in the future, more than the present and past, shall enjoy it thoroughly.

The Ostrich Paradox by Meyer & Kunreuther

THE OSTRICH PARADOX: Why We Underprepare for Disasters by Robert Meyer & Howard Kunreuther (2017) Wharton Digital Press, p 132

The motivation for choosing is title was the force of recommendation of Adam Grant and kind words of appreciation for this title by Daniel Kahneman. Decision making is one of the very important functions of any organization or of any government. When the issue of public policy is discussed, it is the decision making which makes all the difference, just as in a business organisation it happens while devising successful strategies to compete. Decision making is really a very complex process as well as a risky proposition for state and organisations alike.

This book holding its premise in the nature of bird Ostrich makes a good sense driven by the force of nature.  System 1 and System 2 (thinking systems which drive us to use our brain cells) as narrated and defended in Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman gets blended with the perception policy makers have while deciding on their future course of action. Primarily the book is all about Six Biases that get to play while preparing for disasters or risks. It is defended that the reason why we underprepare for disasters lies in these six biases, viz., Myopia, Amnesia, Optimism, Inertia, Simplification and Herding. The authors believe that the researches on most of the disasters of past years are the result of harmful effects of these six systematic biases. These biases show the weakness while we commit System 1 error to perceive risk in haste and commit System 2 error while making decision. The first part of the book narrates these biases with the examples of disasters occurred in different geographies of the world. These examples make the arguments convincing and the biases strong.

Part 2 of the book is prescriptive and the authors provide some kind of remedial measures so that such disasters could be avoided.  Behavioural risk audit of each bias and its elaborate analysis makes the book worth contributing towards providing some practical solutions to deal with disasters. The authors propose four guiding principles to manage long term risk:

1. Commit to long-term protective planning as a major priority.
2. Commit to policies that discourage individual and community actions that increase their explore to long-term risks.
3. Create policies that consider the cognitive biases that inhibit adoption of protective measures.
4. Commit to addressing problems equitably.

These suggestions are well defended with preemptive figures. As a student of business and strategy I feel the book makes a very good case for making successful strategies while organizations handle competition. Lot of times organizations have suffered and faced these biases which gets into while dealing with sustainability issues within and beyond organization. Risk management is an important field of study where this title helps to provide some guidelines. Actuarial scientists have a lot to learn from this volume.  Some of the interesting bytes that I got from the book are:  

'while economics and statistics teach us how we should think about probability and outcomes when choosing between alternatives, we rarely follow these principles when actually making decisions. More often than not, we make choices under risk intuitively rather than deliberately.'

'The perceptions we form about risk are thus more cognitive cocktail of objective facts, subjective feelings, and emotional blend that often causes beliefs about risk to stray widely from those a statistician might prescribe.'

'It is hard to convince people that - the best return on an insurance policy is no return at all.'

Though the book is concise and written from the perspective of disaster management, it travels beyond that boundary and helps its reader to deal with problems through having a perspective.  The authors deserve credit for compiling series of disasters and developing a practical argument to look beyond and prescribe measures for preparations.

Thinking, fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman

THINKING, FAST AND SLOW by Daniel Kahneman (2011), Allen Lane - an imprint of Penguin Books, p 499

Last week while my wife was shopping from a small departmental store at Shillong, she observed one of the vendor (from Hindustan Unilever) talking to the shopkeeper and insisting on keeping Ponds Talcum powder on the shelf, the shopkeeper responded by showing the old stock.  The shopkeeper was telling him the feedback of the customers - 'the customers these days want deo, not talcum powder'. His response was driven by the fact that there is a shift in the customer choice driven by the change in the time, expectations, competitor's response, etc etc.  

While she shared her experience with me, I was also thinking that with the emergence of new products the old ones are fading off. The choices which the customer is making in the market is also the effect of aggressive advertising and increase in the purchasing power.  It was sheer a coincidence that I was going through this book entitled 'Thinking Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahneman. This book was able to answer some such questions.  How the decisions are taken? Which is a better choice? Why do people think what they think? Why things/people are not as they look? There were many such questions which kept pondering over my head and I began to connect them with the contents of the book.

I heard and learnt about Daniel Kahneman only through the accolades that he received after getting the Nobel Prize in the area of economic sciences in 2002. It was precisely the year when I started teaching organizational behaviour though it had been a subject very close to my heart and I have been reading related literature. There was a time (some 25 years back) when I developed interest in Psychology during the period I was doing masters (commerce), I wish we had Psychology as a subject in our college.

Later while in teaching profession, I went through some papers of Kahneman and could always share the learning with students and colleagues whenever I got chance.  When I read the review of this book after its release, I acquired a copy and started reading it. I should not say just reading it, rather studying it, which included, lot of breaks in between as I wanted to read some of the cited works in the book, so honestly it took much more than an usual time which I take to complete reading a book. I think if I recollect, I might not have taken this much time of reading a book as I took for this title. The experience of going through this book made me so rich through innumerable downloads of related material, scanning through some of the experiments available on the web, buying some of the books, and going through cited work in depth in few cases.

As the title suggests, the whole book classifies the thinking process through two systems, System 1 (thinking fast), and System 2 (thinking slow). System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control, and System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations.  The operations of System 2 are often associated with the subjective experience of agency, choice and concentration (p 20-21).  As mentioned in the book System 1 and System 2 as terms were first used by Keith Stanovich and Richard West, who call it now Type 1 and Type 2. Kahneman uses the original version. With numerous experiments and illustrations he establishes the practicality of these two systems which invariably operate while we make choices, decisions, judgments and calculations. The use (and also the conflict) of these two systems by an individual in different circumstances portray mental conditioning and preferences. System 2 is primarily used to overcome the impulses of System 1, which is in charge of self control.

Many times we suffer from bias, using system 1 and falling prey to mis-judge the outcome. Many times the illusory sense dominates over the factual existence of the object as projected through Muller-Lyer illusion. The bat and ball puzzle (originally devised by Shane Frederick) is so apt that one makes judgment without using System 2 and over estimating the conformity through System 1. While I was reading Malcolm Gladwell's BLINK, it made lot of sense to believe on the gut feel, which is based on System 1, though the decision or judgment not always leading to the correct view.  As one keeps turning the pages of the book it becomes more and more convincing that one needs to take time in decision making and not necessarily that one has to go by the gut always, which increases the degree of risk one bears on making choices based on System 1.  

As known, Kahneman and Amos Tversky had questioned the belief that by nature human being are rational and in case of emotions as fear, anger, hatred, affection, people depart from rationality. This book discusses and defends their stand through applied psychological frameworks, findings of various experiments and works of many researchers. Divided in five parts comprising of 38 different chapters, with the ‘speaking of …’ statements at the end of each chapter, the book strongly narrates the causation factor of decisions, making choices out of different alternatives, the follies of statistics, risk policies, etc. 

I remember vividly about the media reports on Kahneman’s Nobel achievement which highlighted Irrationality of stock investors, however what he emphasizes is no rationality.  The argument of irrationality not being opposite of rationality is quite firm and convincing. This is where Dan Ariely's contribution becomes more relevant. Kahneman's acceptance of Dan's work is well placed in this context. The learning through the book is immense. At many instances where I was to use System 1, I chose System 2, which took little more time.  

Richard Layard, dedicated his book - Happiness, lessons from a new science, to Daniel Kahneman. Richard mentions in his book that it was Kahneman who opined that happiness can be measured. Kahneman developed a tool named as Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) based on remembering self and experiencing self which reports on the feelings of individuals. DRM is used by many researchers in different geographies to measure the satisfaction level which is used as a proxy of well-being.  

The book conveys vehemently the basic premise that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than our own (p 28), whether we think fast using system 1 or we think slow using system 2.  The book is strongly recommended for the students of contemporary psychology.